Intrade

About This Business

Intrade, founded in Dublin, Ireland in 2001, is a pioneering prediction market platform that has gained widespread recognition for its accuracy in predicting the outcomes of significant events, including the 2008 and 2012 US election cycles. As highlighted by The Economist, prediction markets like Intrade consolidate the informed guesswork of many into hard probabilities, making them a valued tool for forecasting. Intrade's approach to prediction markets involves the trading of virtual shares on an open exchange, where the prices of these shares reflect the probability of an outcome happening in the real world. This method, which incentivizes trading with real money, has been shown to be more accurate than traditional forecasting methodologies. Essentially, Intrade's platform collects and aggregates the 'Wisdom of the Crowd,' providing a unique and effective way to predict future events. Although Intrade closed its proprietary trading platform in early 2013, its legacy and the concept of prediction markets continue to be of interest, as discussed in publications like Pacific Standard Magazine and Fortune Magazine. Today, Intrade remains a notable example of how the collective predictions of many can be harnessed to forecast outcomes with a high degree of accuracy, underscoring the potential of prediction markets in various fields. With its roots in Dublin and its impact felt globally, Intrade has left a lasting mark on the field of predictive analytics and continues to be a subject of study and interest for those looking to understand the power of collective forecasting.